More than a month ago, Ahmadinejad emerged the victor from a hotly contested election, successfully winning his bid for re-election despite great protest and amidts claims of ballot rigging. The world watched as the dictatorial regime unleashed the Basij militia in a savagely violent crack down on Iranian citizens protesting the election outcome. With at least twenty dead and scores more injured and imprisoned (the Iranian government is sure to have manipulated the official numbers), Ahmadinejad seems to have strengthened his grip on the Iranian nation and bolstered his monopoly of power with Ayatollah Khamenei.
However, the struggle for power and legitimacy has moved from the streets into the very halls of power, between the clerical leaders behind the scenes. Former pro reform President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a supporter of presidential candidate Hossein Mousavi, has been attempting to officially back up Mousavi after his defeat in the elections by playing his role as the powerful Chairman of the Assembly of Experts and pushing for an investigation of voting irregularities. Last friday, Rafsanjani used his prayer sermon that was being broadcast nation wide to call out Ahmadinejad's regime and Ayatollah Khamenei for their response to questions of legitimacy. Rafsanjani utilized revolutionary rhetoric, harkening back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and invoking the people of Iran, in order to convey a message: the people shouldn't fear the government, the government should fear the people.
The line in the sand was clear: Rafsanjani was compairing the conditions following the hotly contested election last month to the conditions immediately preceding the Islamic Revolution in 1979. However, Ahmadinejad's regime held tight in the face of this new round of criticism. Their stance has been, since the election, that enemies of the regime have been trying to foment a velvet revolution by stirring up unrest and undermining the authority of the regime. They have also continuously blamed the US and our allies for said unrest. Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are trying to blame the violent crackdown on the US, but it's not working. President Obama's approach to Iran works in the sense of publicly taking away Iran's ability to use anti-Americanism to politically manipulate their citizenry. Also, Rafsanjani's criticism, echoed by other clerical leaders, has established a base of support for Mousavi and the rest of the opposition, effectively putting Ahmadinejad's regime on its heels.
The gut check here is that Ahmadinejad's regime isn't as strong as we thought. While it's clear that dictator's will not give up power easily, there are clear signs of significant amounts of citizens turning against Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. Further, powerful members of the Iranian elite are starting to turn against the regime starting with Mousavi and Rafsanjani and trickling down into the clerical leadership. While most people only see Iran and think nuclear weapons and anti-Semitism, behind the facade, the base of power is erroding. This presents a situation in which the US taking a hardline stance, reminiscent of the Bush administration, would actually be a very bad idea. Israel's brinksmanship is already putting Iran between a rock and a hard place while President Obama's constant amicable overtures towards Iran are taking away Ahmadinejad's ability to credibly utilize anti-Americanism as a political manipulator. While actually obtaining nuclear weapons is a dangerous wild card, it would put more pressure on Ahmadinejad to act legitimately a la North Korea (especially when Ahmadinejad doesn't have the entire citizenry completely subjugated like Kim Jong Ill) because such an acquisition would put the US and especially Israel on a hair trigger. If Ahmadinejad goes even further off the reservation and utilizes more violence against protesters or against the political opposition, it will only make him weaker.
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