Nuclear Proliferation: Venezuela

The newest arrival to the nuclear proliferation party is no longer trouble-making Iran.  After his recent meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has declared that his country will develop nuclear energy with Russian help.  Chavez directly addressed the immediate concern by saying that they're not looking to develop a bomb (like we believe him) so we shouldn't bother with them like we bother with Iran (like we're just going to let it happen).

If Chavez hadn't already been making so much trouble in Latin America / South America, this might have been unexpected.  The fact of the matter is that Chavez and Russia have been so close over the past several years, Russian media calls him "Russia's comrade-in-arms-and-oil."  However, nothing quite illustrates the relationship between the two countries like big numbers, specifically the $20 billion joint oil venture and the $2.2 billion credit for Russian weapons.  Both of those numbers come from deals struck during the same visit as the nuclear technology deal.

But, reading further into that arms deal may provide a bit of information that is relevant to the nuclear energy debate, specifically that Venezuela is buying rockets from Russia.  Chavez has been at the center of arms race controversy with his buying habits over the past several years.  While Chavez insists the military hardware he acquired from Russia is purely for defense, Colombia has to wonder.  Furthermore, one has to wonder if this deal was a form of deterrence for when Chavez breaks the nuclear energy deal to the press.  Whatever the reasons, Chavez can't actually think that breaking this kind of news now with Obama about to head up  the UN Security Council is going to go over well.

The gut check here is incredulous.  While it is believable that Russia is looking to expand their venture into the nuclear energy market, it is completely unbelievable that they haven't learned a single thing from their experiment with Iran.  Iranian nuclear energy hasn't gone smoothly to say the least.  There is an international governmental organization known as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that determines who gets to play with nuclear materials.  Russia circumvented the IAEA on its deal with Iran, and look where that got them.  Russia is once again circumventing the IAEA on a nuclear deal, so they clearly didn't learn that lesson.  Now, Venezuela, of all countries, is the one country that could start a full blown arms race and potentially completely destabilize the entire region.  Assuming that this deal actually goes through, Russia is fast becoming a facilitator of nuclear proliferation, something the UN, the IAEA, and the US are committed to opposing.  This new deal with Venezuela, right in our backyard, promises to produce some political fireworks.

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for anyone drops to zero. This quote from the movie Fight Club is literally and conceptually applicable to any international crisis situation, especially the current situation between Iran and Israel. It's always a question of time, like, given enough time, anyone with means and motive will carry out an action. Plug in Iran and nuclear weapons and, given enough time, Iran will develop nuclear weapons because they have the means and the motive. The only thing that is deceptively unclear is the true motive.

If you ask any one person what they think about Iran, nukes, and Israel, the ensuing conversation is going to be the same thing every time. Iran is evil; they're trying to get nukes to wipe Israel off the planet. Of course you can't blame anyone for thinking that, the second half of that statement looks like a direct quote from an Ahmadinejad speach. But, consider this: if you look at a map of the Middle East, Iran is situated directly between Iraq and Afghanistan, currently home to thousands of US troops. Iran has also been the subject of much sabre rattling over the past five or so years. Factor in the long running conflict between Israel and surrounding hardline Islamic regimes and you've got a massive powder keg that can be set off by any of three sparks: US aggression from Iraq or Afghanistan, Israeli first strike, or Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

The question remains though, is Iran seeking nuclear weapons in order to protect themselves a la North Korea or is Iran really going to bomb Israel? The answer doesn't even matter because Israel isn't going to sit around and wait to find out. The second they have hard evidence that Iran is dangerously close to having a bomb ready to go, past the proverbial point of no return, Israel will go weapons hot on a first strike and never look back, especially now that Netanyahu is running things. The question then becomes how to do we dump water on the fuse before the powderkeg blows?

Obama is pushing the international effort as the peaceful solution that doesn't utilized inflammatory political rhetoric. Today, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates outlined the next step if Iran continues to buck international demands that it return to the negotiating table, that being hard sanctions (a shot at Iran's means of obtaining the materials neccessary to develop nuclear weapons). Gates' announcement came on a visit to Israel, after which Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel's "all options on the table" stance. The thing is, Israel doesn't like leaving these types of situations up to chance, like the chance that Russia (Iran's supplier of nuclear materials and technologies) would veto any resolution on new sanctions or the chance that sanctions would just further resolve Iran to obtaining nuclear weapons.

The gut check here is scary. Of the three most likely scenarios for nuclear war (India/Pakistan, North Korea, and the Middle East), only one can happen first on a timeline. That being said, the building pressure between Iran and Israel is definitely the most likely scenario for a breakout regional conflict. If nuclear weapons are thrown in the mix, then it will become the most likely scenario for nuclear conflict. The only way to stop an Israeli first strike is to somehow get Iran to cease and desist nuclear weapons development and prove that they are doing so. Obama's diplomatic overtures combined with the democratic internal turmoil Iran is currently experiencing are putting Ahmadinejad's regime between a rock and a hard place in terms of their policy toward international oversight of their nuclear program. Adding harsher sanctions or even just the threat of harsher sanctions will act like turning up the thermostat. The question is, will Iran choose the path that resolves conflict or the path that leads to confrontation?