Between a Rock and a Hard Place

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for anyone drops to zero. This quote from the movie Fight Club is literally and conceptually applicable to any international crisis situation, especially the current situation between Iran and Israel. It's always a question of time, like, given enough time, anyone with means and motive will carry out an action. Plug in Iran and nuclear weapons and, given enough time, Iran will develop nuclear weapons because they have the means and the motive. The only thing that is deceptively unclear is the true motive.

If you ask any one person what they think about Iran, nukes, and Israel, the ensuing conversation is going to be the same thing every time. Iran is evil; they're trying to get nukes to wipe Israel off the planet. Of course you can't blame anyone for thinking that, the second half of that statement looks like a direct quote from an Ahmadinejad speach. But, consider this: if you look at a map of the Middle East, Iran is situated directly between Iraq and Afghanistan, currently home to thousands of US troops. Iran has also been the subject of much sabre rattling over the past five or so years. Factor in the long running conflict between Israel and surrounding hardline Islamic regimes and you've got a massive powder keg that can be set off by any of three sparks: US aggression from Iraq or Afghanistan, Israeli first strike, or Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

The question remains though, is Iran seeking nuclear weapons in order to protect themselves a la North Korea or is Iran really going to bomb Israel? The answer doesn't even matter because Israel isn't going to sit around and wait to find out. The second they have hard evidence that Iran is dangerously close to having a bomb ready to go, past the proverbial point of no return, Israel will go weapons hot on a first strike and never look back, especially now that Netanyahu is running things. The question then becomes how to do we dump water on the fuse before the powderkeg blows?

Obama is pushing the international effort as the peaceful solution that doesn't utilized inflammatory political rhetoric. Today, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates outlined the next step if Iran continues to buck international demands that it return to the negotiating table, that being hard sanctions (a shot at Iran's means of obtaining the materials neccessary to develop nuclear weapons). Gates' announcement came on a visit to Israel, after which Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel's "all options on the table" stance. The thing is, Israel doesn't like leaving these types of situations up to chance, like the chance that Russia (Iran's supplier of nuclear materials and technologies) would veto any resolution on new sanctions or the chance that sanctions would just further resolve Iran to obtaining nuclear weapons.

The gut check here is scary. Of the three most likely scenarios for nuclear war (India/Pakistan, North Korea, and the Middle East), only one can happen first on a timeline. That being said, the building pressure between Iran and Israel is definitely the most likely scenario for a breakout regional conflict. If nuclear weapons are thrown in the mix, then it will become the most likely scenario for nuclear conflict. The only way to stop an Israeli first strike is to somehow get Iran to cease and desist nuclear weapons development and prove that they are doing so. Obama's diplomatic overtures combined with the democratic internal turmoil Iran is currently experiencing are putting Ahmadinejad's regime between a rock and a hard place in terms of their policy toward international oversight of their nuclear program. Adding harsher sanctions or even just the threat of harsher sanctions will act like turning up the thermostat. The question is, will Iran choose the path that resolves conflict or the path that leads to confrontation?