Election For Sale

Thursday in Afghanistan promises to be a day of reckoning for not only Hamid Karzai and his government but also for larger Western efforts to turn a state that's existed in a haphazard tribal system for centuries into a functioning democracy. Karzai is running for his second term as Afghanistan's President since he was hand picked by the US, then under President Bush, for his charismatic and strong political nature. However, since he won the first Presidential election in 2004, Karzai's government has suffered routine setbacks in battling insurgents as well as widespread corruption while also failing to extend its authority beyond the capital city of Kabul.

But, corruption within and actual authority of the government are only two parts of the legitimacy issue in Thursday's elections. The legitimacy of the elections themselves is in peril due to increased violence in towns around voting polls as well as direct threats from the Taliban and other insurgent groups. Also, election monitors won't be able to be present in dangerous areas, presenting an opportunity for vote fraud. But, the ultimate challenge to legitimacy will be the outcome. More than one candidate has employed political manipulation tactics by claiming violent unrest will occur if they are not the winner or overtly accusing Karzai of stealing the election. These types of claims and political manipulations increase the likelihood of violence in the instance that the elections are not decisive and legitimacy challenges are not addressed properly and openly.

The gut check here is very anxious. This election is the make or break point for President Obama's redoubled efforts in Afghanistan and the future of any Afghani government, plain and simple. There will certainly be legitimacy challenges following Thursday's vote, and, if they aren't handled properly, violent unrest a la Iran is a very real possibility. US and allied forces are already involved in a protracted battle against resurgent Taliban and Al Qaeda forces; having to deal with violence by citizens not affiliated with insurgency would make an already nightmarish war zone nearly impossible to navigate, much less subdue. Another valid issue is how the losers will react. While there are more than forty challengers facing Karzai, only a few have a real chance. If Karzai wins, will those few leaders concede or push legitimacy challenges and urge protest among their followers? Too much is riding on this election for Thursday to go off without a hitch.