Fruits of Our Labors: Squeezing Iran

Current analysis would indicate that the critics were right when they criticized Obama's scrapping of the Euro missile shield, saying it would embolden Russia. In diplomacy, just like in business or any other profession that involves trading or negotiating, all parties have a vested interest in eliciting concessions from the other side while minimizing concessions of their own, especially when it comes to major issues or national interests. The main reason to not make concessions when it comes to one's national interests (in the case of the Euro missile shield, national security) is literal: conceding on one's national interests weakens one's soft and hard power. The secondary reason, having perhaps an even more significant impact, is the fact that making concessions weakens one side's bargaining power and gives opposing sides the perception that the one side is willing to back down, thereby opening the door to aggression by opponents.

However, what often goes unnoticed is that there are two different types of diplomacy: public and private. There is what we as citizens and information consumers see and there is what actually goes on between nations. Simply put, what we read in the news paper and what policy think tanks put out is based on official accounts released by governments and close analysis of news sources. That account isn't always the whole story. When it comes to the relationship between the US and Russia, what we get in the news is rarely the whole story. If you read between the lines, you can begin to see that the current situation over the Euro missile shield isn't exactly how it appears.

When Obama chose to scrap the Euro missile shield, he did compromise on one aspect of our national security. However, the Euro missile shield was a good example of why pursuit of absolute security is in fact counter productive as it was pushing our relationship with Russia to the brink and possibly putting us on the path to a military confrontation. Nixing the Euro missile shield helped our diplomatic position with Russia, giving us a boost in relations and giving us credit with Medvedev. The effects of this concession can be clearly seen in the debate over Iran's nuclear program, a program which would not exist without Russia's assistance. Earlier this month, Russia wholly opposed new sanctions on Iran. Following Obama's scrapping of the Euro missile shield, Russia did a u-turn and now will support new sanctions on Iran while praising Obama's move in the same breath.

With Russia's help, the US is turning up the heat diplomatically on Iran and they are starting to squirm. The first piece of evidence is that Iran spontaneously admitted to the existence of a secret nuclear facility that, by all reports, is still under construction. Of course, Israel wasted no time in declaring this facility a nuclear weapons factory. Iran continued to backpedal, saying that they would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the newly revealed nuclear facility in the hopes that they could beat back accusations that they are violating IAEA regulations. But, their efforts aren't working. The new revelation simply gives the US and international opposition more ammunition in their push for new sanctions. While China is still blocking new sanctions, Russia's change of heart is providing the US with key support that enables us to put the screws to Iran. Remember, Russia is currently the sole source of nuclear fuel to Iran.

The gut check here is fortuitous. Obama's first major diplomatic move is proving effective despite what the critics are saying. He is re-dedicating the US to the diplomatic process and it is paying off. However, the next twelve months are key to testing whether new boosts in relations and new opportunities are utilized or squandered. While Obama's redoubled diplomatic efforts are currently working for Iran, Venezuela is fast becoming a new crisis right in our own backyard. But, now that Obama is heading up the UN Security Council, his re-dedication to diplomacy is going to be infinitely more effective as he now has a direct channel to world leaders and an international body that has the authority to authorize and enforce international actions. While the UN faltered, became stagnant, and even irrelevant under Bush, the UN will be reborn from the ashes under Obama. Hopefully Obama is just as effective at being a world leader as he is at public speaking.