Operation Treadmill

While the world was preoccupied with Iraq, Afghanistan quietly became more and more lost. Now, with Iraq winding down, the upcoming round of elections is providing a critical review of democratic progress in Afghanistan. With Karzai facing down two main challengers in a field of contestants, the elections themselves are far from decided, much less guaranteed to even happen given a new outbreak of violence. At issue is whether or not the US has succeeded in creating a secure environment in which democracy can flourish.

Since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the US presence in Afghanistan has done little to provide security. The Taliban as well as other insurgent groups have enjoyed tacit freedom in the no-mans-land area on the boarder betwen Pakistan and Afghanistan due to the extreme complexity of the terrain. As a result, the Taliban and other insurgent groups have been able to essentially ressurect their forces and produce a new wave of violence that is threatening the stability of the upcoming Afghani elections. In fact, reports indicate that Taliban and Afghani insurgents have reached a new level of sophistication in guerrilla warfare that has significantly increased their operating range, their combat effectiveness, and their overall lethality.

Part of the reason the mission Afghanistan has slid so far backwards is the policies and strategies of the Bush adminstration. Under Bush, the US basically contracted local war lords to provide intelligence and regional security. As a result, the war lords were basically given the freedom to enlarge their private armies and run their opium poppy trade, leading to a massive boom in the Afghani heroin trade. This drug trade boom put money directly into the hands of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. In response to this backsliding, President Obama announced his new plan for Afghanistan at the end of May and later developed a new drug policy.

But, even if his strategic plan enjoys marginal success, it is no guarantee that the US's political plans for Afghanistan succeed. In 2001, Karzai looked like the best choice to lead Afghanistan given that he would work closely with the US and had the charisma and character needed to lead. Now, he presides over what is largely seen as a corrupt government. The lesson that the US has continuously failed to learn is that we can't simply choose who should lead a country, the leader has to be organically chosen.

The gut check here is that Afghanistan is in a very precarious position. US forces have a long way to go to guarantee stability. If it's too dangerous, the elections might not be viable. If it is stable enough but the US is too involved, the elections will be seen as biased or even rigged. But, if the US holds too much back and the Taliban, Al Qaeda, or some other insurgent group have too much freedom to influence the voting, the Taliban could enjoy a political revitalization as well. The key is to provide a secure atmosphere so the elections can be held free of violence while not influencing the voting in any way.